AGP Executive Report

El Niño Watch: Forecasters say a potentially “strongest in history” El Niño is developing, with the WMO flagging an 80% chance of conditions in July–August 2026 and warning of drought, heat and food/water disruption risks across multiple regions. Climate Cost for NSW: A UNSW-led report estimates climate change cut NSW economic output by about 18% in 2024, with most losses tied to broader weather-driven impacts on agriculture, trade and supply chains. Biosecurity Raid: Australia seized more than 100,000 illegal exotic cockroaches in a record bust, targeting a major pest-trafficking operation. Primary Industries Support: Labor says energy-hungry data centres will face “triple-lock” obligations to reduce peak strain on the grid, a move aimed at protecting reliability as AI investment grows. Rural Women in Focus: A Victoria conference called Thriving Women is bringing practical learning and crop/paddock experiences to more regional women in agriculture. Agritech/Robotics: Goodnature promoted new co-CEOs as the pest-control firm pushes toxin-free innovation, with Australia among key export markets. Farm Events: Elders FarmFest 2026 in Toowoomba drew strong crowds despite cost pressures, with drones and ag-tech demos a standout.

Aussie agriculture and fuel security: With the Strait of Hormuz still a flashpoint after renewed US-Iran hostilities, a Reuters report says Australia’s fuel stockpiles are now bigger than feared, after Asian refineries shifted supply away from the Middle East. Policy and farm income: AgriFutures Australia research warns the tax system isn’t keeping up with how farms are diversifying into renewables and biodiversity credits, leaving producers facing uncertainty and extra compliance. Sugar industry pressure: Canegrowers says urban expansion and mill viability are squeezing Far North Queensland growers, with Mulgrave Mill’s planned throughput seen as a knife-edge for profitability. Biosecurity and wastewater: New research from UQ and Exeter finds antibiotic by-products in treated wastewater can still drive antibiotic resistance, while Australia’s record cockroach bug-bust highlights ongoing pest-trafficking risks. Conservation for farming landscapes: WA’s Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo faces extinction unless a major tree-planting corridor restores habitat and food sources. Regional development: A Corowa roundtable flags housing shortages and weak retail foot traffic as key barriers to growth in the Murray River region.

US Tariffs Watch: The US has proposed fresh 12.5% tariffs on Australia as part of new levies covering 60 countries, with analysts saying Australia likely won’t win an exemption—though beef and gold are expected to keep their carve-outs. El Niño Food Risk: Forecasters and the WMO are warning a potentially strong El Niño could intensify drought, flooding and heatwaves, raising the odds of major knock-on effects for global food and water supplies. Beef Cost Pressure: Rabobank says the Middle East conflict could squeeze margins across Australia’s beef supply chain as consumers trade down from premium cuts to mince and sausages. Biosecurity Alert: Australia’s record cockroach bust has seized 100,000 illegal live insects, highlighting ongoing risks to agriculture from wildlife trafficking. Tuna Shift Planning: Pacific nations are rolling out a climate warning system to track tuna moving beyond national waters, aiming to protect fisheries, food security and livelihoods. Agriculture Trade Signals: China’s blueberry boom is reshaping regional markets, with Yunnan expansion boosting exports and undercutting prices versus Australian fruit.

Grain Outlook: ABARES forecasts Australia’s winter crop production down 21% in 2026-27, with lower yields and planted area raising questions for Asia-bound supply. Labour Solutions: A non-profit is matching international workers to farms to help plug labour gaps, including placements linked to Australia and other countries. Biosecurity & Pests: Victoria farmers are on alert after plague locust numbers hit their highest in 15 years, with egg-laying raising fears of spring swarms. Beef Market: Beef trade shows signs of steadying after a run of weekly price falls, with processors holding quotes and tighter slaughter supplies supporting negotiations. Virtual Fencing Debate: Virtual fencing is gaining traction, but vets and animal welfare groups are still split on animal welfare and regulation. Tasmania Forestry: The Albanese and Rockliff governments move toward a bilateral forestry agreement to align Tasmania’s forest management with new national environmental standards from 2027. Sustainable Packaging: Terra Firma launches Averro to scale alternatives to conventional plastic packaging across foodservice, healthcare, logistics and export supply chains. El Niño Watch: Forecasters are increasingly confident a strong El Niño could form, with major knock-on risks for drought and flooding in key agricultural regions.

Biosecurity Crackdown: Australia seized more than 100,000 live illegal cockroaches from a NSW commercial breeder in the country’s biggest invertebrate bust, including Madagascar hissing and Dubia species, warning they’re banned to protect ecosystems and prevent invasive spread. Dairy Pressure: Dairy farmers say opening 2026-27 milk prices are disappointing, with Gippsland processors’ minimums ranging about $8.50–$10.38/kg milk solids and some suppliers facing pay cuts versus last season. Water Policy Fallout: Campaspe Shire Council urged the 2026 Murray-Darling Basin Plan review to weigh local social and economic impacts more heavily, citing dairy processing closures and eroding confidence from ongoing water recovery uncertainty. Cotton Outlook: ANZ reports cotton growers have balanced limited water and rising costs, with quality generally good/fair and a possible further crop contraction to 3 million bales in 2026-27. Beef Trade Watch: Research flags China’s import quotas as a key force reshaping global beef trade flows, with competition shifting as Australia and Brazil expand supply. Farm Tech & Data: BNOW says its AI livestock platform uses ingestible biosensing to improve cattle health monitoring and farm productivity, aiming to boost predictability across regional supply chains.

Biosecurity & pests: Australia seized 100,000+ live exotic cockroaches in NSW in the country’s biggest illegal invertebrate bust, warning the trade could threaten native wildlife and agriculture. Weed control scrutiny: Top neurologists say the APVMA has ignored their concerns as it weighs paraquat’s future amid Parkinson’s disease links, with a final decision expected mid-year. Feral pigs on the move: Inland NSW farmers report major pasture damage from feral pigs after dry conditions boosted numbers, with NSW Local Land Services urging producers to use available support. Farm productivity tech: Seoul firm BioData Now is pushing an AI livestock system using ingestible biosensing to track cattle health and improve reproductive outcomes. Cotton policy vs science: India’s Cotton Productivity Mission aims to lift lint yields sharply, but a new look at cotton fields questions whether policy can undo on-ground challenges. Markets & crops: Rains in NSW and bullish offshore wheat sentiment helped lift Australian wheat prices in May, though more old-crop selling later pulled prices back. Dairy pressure: A report highlights milk industry shrinkage as factories prioritise shareholders over farmers, despite steady demand.

Dairy Value Push: Jemaluang Dairy Valley in Malaysia is ramping up an integrated dairy model with Australian-bred cows, targeting 4,000 head and 10 million litres of milk by year three, aiming to cut reliance on imported premium milk and build a wider dairy supply chain. Wool Market Watch: ANZ says Australian wool prices have stabilised in early-to-mid 2026 and may stay relatively high, though week-to-week swings are likely driven more by currency and auction mix than demand alone. El Niño Pressure on Food: A “super” El Niño is increasingly likely, with forecasts warning of major heat and disruption risks that could feed into food inflation and supply strain globally. Milk Waste Fix: A Canberra company’s on-site biosensor testing could help dairy producers spot spoilage risk faster, potentially preventing more than 70 million tonnes of milk waste each year. Agri Supply Chain Diversification: Commentary highlights how geopolitical shocks are pushing companies toward diversified, regional sourcing—pointing to India’s growing role in agri-chemicals and related supply chains. Biosecurity Raid: Australia seized 100,000 illegal live cockroaches in a record operation, underscoring ongoing pest and trade risks for agriculture.

Biosecurity crackdown: Australia seized more than 100,000 live illegal exotic cockroaches from a commercial breeder in Bathurst, NSW, including Madagascar hissing and dubia species, warning they can spread disease and harm native wildlife and agriculture. Drought and climate risk: Forecasts point to El Niño returning, with the next 90 days seen as critical for how severe impacts become for farming and food prices. Dairy waste tech: A Canberra company says on-site milk testing using biosensors could cut routine lab delays and help prevent more than 70 million tonnes of milk waste each year by steering high-protease milk to products with longer tolerance. Feral pig pressure: Farmers and hunters in NSW’s cropping regions say feral pig numbers are “flying out of proportion,” calling for stronger incentives and faster control. Winter growing tips: A practical guide highlights how to protect and extend harvests in winter veggie patches, including dealing with snails and frost mitigation. Veterinary education focus: India’s veterinary leaders are debating how training must shift toward livestock economics, food safety, climate resilience and public health.

Feral pigs pressure: Farmers in NSW’s central west say feral pig numbers are “flying” in cropping areas, urging stronger incentives as the NSW Feral Pig and Pest Program reports large recent culls but hunters argue it’s not enough. Biosecurity raid: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal live cockroaches from a Bathurst breeder, including Madagascar hissing and dubia species worth about $142,000, with officials warning pet owners to use legal feeder insects instead. El Niño watch: Forecasters say El Niño is very likely to develop, with uncertainty over strength but clear implications for Australia’s weather extremes. Lentils on the rise: ABARES expects Australia’s lentil output to hit a record 2.2m tonnes (+3%), even as overall winter crop production is forecast to fall 21% on dry conditions and high input costs. Producers face legal uncertainty: AgForce warns EPBC reforms are creating approval layers and legal ambiguity that could disrupt routine farming and future investment. Beef pricing outlook: Rabobank expects tight global beef supply to keep prices firm through 2026. Community resilience: Kariong residents marked the suburb’s 80th anniversary with a big turnout and local fundraising.

R&D Tax Pressure on Biotech: Australia’s health and life sciences groups are urging Treasurer Jim Chalmers to rethink proposed R&D tax changes, warning it could take more than a decade to bring medical breakthroughs to market. Ord Valley Youth Centre Row: Farmers in WA’s Ord region question a plan for a $5.9m youth night facility near cotton properties, saying it risks undermining an agricultural precinct. Western Downs Gas Boom, Uneven Costs: In Chinchilla, coal seam gas has boosted investment, but locals say benefits aren’t evenly felt as power bills soar and small businesses adapt. Biosecurity Crackdown on Exotic Cockroaches: Authorities seized 100,000+ live illegal cockroaches from a NSW breeder, warning the pet trade could threaten agriculture and native ecosystems. Hail Risk Shifts with Warming: New research suggests damaging hail patterns may move toward cooler regions, raising winter and shoulder-season risk for farming. Market Watch: Soybeans and corn keep sliding on weather and weak export demand, while wheat is mixed amid higher input costs and global competition. Agritourism Trend: Australia’s truffle tourism is growing, with dogs sniffing and farm stays drawing visitors seeking immersive experiences.

Biosecurity Crackdown: NSW authorities seized more than 100,000 illegal live cockroaches from a Bathurst breeder in what’s described as Australia’s biggest exotic invertebrate bust, including Madagascar hissing and dubia species worth about $200,000; officials say the insects were being sold online as reptile food and warn pet owners to use legal alternatives like crickets or wood roaches. AgTech Investment: URUS’s planned acquisition of AgriWebb is being framed as a shift toward investment in agricultural data infrastructure, not just standalone farm software, with the deal positioned as part of broader consolidation in livestock genetics and operational data. Industry Leadership: Grain producers’ advocacy group GPA has appointed Duncan as its new CEO, citing 20+ years’ experience across national agriculture organisations and producer-focused leadership. Market Watch: ASX is set for a firmer open after Wall Street’s rebound, but investors remain wary of commodity weakness and iron ore pressure. Climate Risk: UN and global reporting continue to flag El Niño as a looming driver of heat and drought impacts on agriculture and food prices.

Biosecurity crackdown: NSW authorities seized more than 100,000 illegal exotic cockroaches from a Bathurst breeder, including dubia and Madagascar hissing species, worth up to $200,000, with the animals to be euthanised and penalties warned for anyone who breeds or trades them. Climate pressure on food: Dry weather tied to an expected strong El Niño is already disrupting crop planting across Asia, with analysts warning of tighter supplies and higher global food prices. Farmers adapting: An ABC report highlights growers turning to regenerative practices, but notes the real-world hurdle is getting change implemented on the ground. Drought and water rules: A NSW dryland farmer says floodplain harvesting licences have altered natural flows, leaving his cattle reliant on public waterholes and raising fears of “drought forever”. Trade risk for beef: China’s quota system has beef importers near the limit, with a potential 55% tariff looming if Australia exceeds shipment quotas. Rural community impacts: A proposed Sale alternative truck route bypass has families concerned about compulsory land acquisition and the long-running uncertainty around the project.

El Niño Food Shock Watch: The WMO says El Niño is developing with an 80–90% chance of hitting June–August 2026, raising the risk of heat and drought that could disrupt crops from Asia to Australia and push food prices higher. Fertiliser Cost Pressure: Rising fertiliser prices are being linked to global supply shocks, with trade disruptions and higher urea costs squeezing farm margins. Locust Risk in Victoria: Agriculture Victoria is urging north-west Victorian landholders to report locust activity early as adult numbers run above normal and egg-laying is underway. Faba Bean Breeding Boost: GRDC-backed work is launching a refreshed national faba bean breeding program aimed at lifting yield, disease resistance and quality as the crop expands. Beef Genetics to China: Australian bull semen exports resume after a five-year break, with ABS Australia shipping 24,000 straws as demand grows for premium beef in China. Regional Funding for SA Farmers: South Australia’s 2026–27 budget includes $8m over four years for the Primary Industries Future Forward Fund to support R&D, sustainability and resilience.

Bees in crisis: The Wheen Bee Foundation warns varroa mite has wiped out at least 60% of hives, forecasting a shortfall of about 290,000 commercial beehives for Australia’s peak pollination season in August—threatening pollination-dependent crops worth $14.2b. El Niño food risk: The UN’s weather agency says El Niño is likely to develop and could intensify, raising the odds of drought, heavy rain and heatwaves—conditions that can hit crop yields and water supplies. Central West cropping lift: May rains have revived confidence in NSW’s central west, with farmers restarting winter sowing and shifting plans as nitrogen decisions return to the spotlight. Carbon credit milestone: A NSW broadacre operation has issued Australian Carbon Credit Units using a fungal seed treatment, marking a first for broadacre cropping in the carbon market. Dairy pressure points: Rabobank says dairy producers face “break-even” conditions as fuel, fertiliser, water, labour and interest costs bite, even as some regions improve. Water security dispute: WA shires want a pause on a magnetite mine extension after concerns about groundwater access to a key potable aquifer. Trade shock watch: The US proposes new forced-labour tariffs that could include Australia, adding uncertainty for agricultural exporters.

El Niño & food prices: The UN and WMO warn El Niño is likely to return soon, with extreme heat and drier conditions raising pressure on water, crops and power—sparking fears of higher grocery bills, including in the UK. Farm inputs & production risk: Reports point to fertiliser disruption and a drier outlook affecting Australia’s winter crop prospects, while grain markets react to weather swings. Dairy uncertainty: Farmers face a tough transition as processors hesitate over taking on dairy suppliers, with capacity and market access key to any deal. Biosecurity & pests: Australia’s mouse plague continues to drive emergency responses and calls for stronger preparedness. Waste-to-resource push: WA’s Remade in WA plan backs recycling pathways for end-of-life solar panels and lithium batteries to cut landfill and recover materials. Fresh produce supplier support: NFF Horticulture Council welcomes government funding for Know Your Grocery Code training to help growers understand and enforce grocery rights. Cattle tech investment: 701x raises $10m+ to expand its cattle management ecosystem, including GPS smart ear tags and herd monitoring. Labour welfare spotlight: A Sydney case involving Pacific workers sleeping rough under a bridge raises concerns about support systems for seasonal and meat-processing workers.

El Niño Watch: The UN’s weather agency (WMO) says El Niño is likely to emerge and could be moderate to strong, raising the odds of drought, heavy rain and heatwaves across Australia and beyond—an early warning for farm planning and food security. Winter Crops & Inputs: Grain growers get a small easing in inputs, but forecasts still point to a complex winter with cost and weather risks hanging over yields. Beekeeping Biosecurity: Varroa mite resistance to pyrethroid treatments has been confirmed in north-east Victoria, with Agriculture Victoria urging regular monitoring and miticide rotation. Chemical Controversy: Outrage is growing in Australia over paraquat’s continued use despite bans in 70 countries and links raised to Parkinson’s risk. Dairy Pressure: Korea’s dairy sector faces falling consumption and rising imports, with tariff-free milk set to intensify competition. Wool Bounce: Australian sheepskins are back in demand as wool prices surge, lifting returns for merino skins. Renewables Grid Bottleneck: NSW planning approvals for solar and batteries are taking far longer than in other states, threatening the pace of farm-adjacent energy upgrades. Energy Deal with Ag Links: Macquarie and IG4 will sell a controlling stake in Brazil’s CLI port operator to AD Ports for $835m, supporting sugar and corn/soy export routes. Mango Disease: Mango twig tip dieback is spreading in the NT, with growers bulldozing thousands of trees as research ramps up.